Diminishing era of desktop applications

During 1990s, there was a craze for developing desktop applications (i.e. applications like EXE files which are run locally from personal computers).

There was a reason, PC market was just catching up and 95% computers were using Windows! So, once you develop an application, it could potentially run on 95% of computers in the world. Also, broadband internet was not widespread at that time and dial up speed was abysmal at today's (2010) standard.

But after 2005 or so, Windows lost a good deal or market share to Apple and Linux. Broadband became cheaper and speed went up exponentially.

As a result, cloud or internet based applications started to prosper.

Just ask yourself, how many local applications you use in your computer now? Unless you a technical user (engineer, IT professional etc.) chances are you just use File Explorer, Browser and Office suite applications (or may be few games for your kid/s to play).

Then came smart phones! A lot of small apps are now available in phones. Who needs a computer to calculate compound interest anymore? Modern smart phones are as powerful as computers of 5 years back!

So, the reward (not just monetary) for developing desktop applications is diminishing.

The only future desktop applications will be mostly server based like databases, engineering applications etc.

As more and more operating systems will become popular, developers will try to create applications which will be used by many. So, web based apps will be natural choice.